THE AGE OF CONFLICT AND HOW TO SURVIVE IT
We are living in interesting times. Pre-COVID, January 2020, seems like an aeon ago. A world focused on globalization and sustainability transformed in four years into a world on the brink of global conflict. We in the West don’t fully appreciate the potential impact of these conflicts on our lives. Like the period before WWI, we are sleepwalking our way towards a looming catastrophe.
Escalation and its Impact
Consider this scenario: Following the latest elections in Taiwan, China imposes a naval and sky blockade on the island. This is a milder alternative to a full-scale invasion. This action might provoke a US response. However, let’s conservatively assume it won’t lead to immediate armed confrontation. The immediate effect? A throttling of 30% of the global computer chip supply. This 30% includes a disproportionately high percentage of advanced chips, the ones in your phone and computer.
Now, imagine a conflict in the Korean peninsula on top of the Taiwan situation. The result is likely to be a halt in technological advances for major companies. No more chips for AI development. No new phones, computers, or TVs. Remember the impact of supply chain issues on the global car industry? This could lead to a global recession or worse. This is a relatively small conflict compared to some of the fears being raised in Europe, or the potential melt-down in the Middle East.
Complacency of the West
Why are we not more concerned about these scenarios? Why aren’t mainstream media outlets discussing these immediate threats more thoroughly?
The answer might be simple. Warning people about events beyond their control doesn’t always attract votes or readers. Our market-based economy and government interests shape our opinions and the information we receive. We saw this during the Covid crisis. There’s a human tendency to avoid unpleasant topics. We’re becoming like ostriches, heads in the sand, distracted by fears of climate catastrophes, immigration, inflation, etc. It’s easier to focus on these than, say, a distant war in China.
Seventy years of relative peace have ingrained a belief in the West: a negotiated settlement is always possible. We think all state actors, and some non-state ones, are fundamentally reasonable. Their goal is to experience a full life with their loved ones. Putin’s actions two years ago partially woke the West from this fantasy. But this belief is deeply ingrained and affects how many perceive the world. Consider the shock in the UK at the idea of conscription in a future war with Russia.
Finding the Resources to Face External Shocks
To withstand external shocks like war or economic crises, we need internal resources we rarely tap into. Our strength comes from believing our Western way of life is valuable and worth defending. Decades of post-colonial rhetoric have eroded this sense of pride among younger generations.
I believe that when needed, even the “woke” brigade will find its spine. The Western liberal order, despite its challenges, remains the best alternative.
Given the challenges from China, Russia, and climate events, preparation is wise. The US has started with the CHIP legislation to boost domestic chip production. On However, some of its latest actions, especially the presidential directive halting the construction of natural gas export facilities due to environmental concerns are harming Europe’s ability to disengage from Putin’s gas.
On a commercial and personal level, we must prepare before these scenarios unfold. Companies should review their dependence on external factors like supply chains and manufacturing processes. They should improve their resilience to external shocks.
Individually, we should assess our finances and health. Ensuring financial stability and good health are key in uncertain times. We should deepen our networks. Real connections with real people that are physically in our environment can be crucial in times of crisis.
The Future is Bright
I believe the Age of Conflict we are entering is a precursor to an Age of Abundance. The next two to three decades could unfold a different future for humanity. Thriving in challenging times is key to managing this period and embracing a hopeful future.
Being prepared for external shocks is not just a necessity; it’s a strategic advantage. My specialized audit service offers your company a comprehensive review of its preparedness for external shocks, coupled with innovative AI solutions tailored to enhance your resilience and future-proof your business. This includes a geopolitical analysis service that you can use in your strategic planning. Don’t wait for the next big shock to reveal your vulnerabilities. Contact me today, and let’s proactively prepare your company for the coming volatility and enhance its ability to adapt to changing circumstances.
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